Tensions continue to mount on the Ukrainian border, and diplomatic efforts are in overdrive trying to hold back Russia. On the brink of an invasion, 150,000 Russian soldiers, warplanes and military hardware are engaging in nuclear drills. High-level talks continue to be aimed at preventing all-out war.
Peter Westmore is the former President of the National Civic Council and publisher of News Weekly. He’s been monitoring developments as they happen, and he joined us recently on 20Twenty to cast a Christian view over the issue.
The administrative structure and the bureaucracy put in place by the Communist Party remained in Russia, even after the communist party was dismantled. “That helps to explain why Putin, who is a former KGB officer, is now the president of Russia,” says Peter. “There was never a full process of the removal of the communist presence.”
Despite this, Peter says that for the Orthodox Church in Russia, there has been a revival not only of belief but also of practice. It’s a paradox because the West has been through a period of increasing secularisation. If we look at religion in Russia after the end of the communist era, there has been a reconversion of Russia back to orthodoxy.
While Russia does have some aspects of a democracy, it is nothing like the west. We’ve consistently seen President Putin and his allies ruthlessly suppressing people who oppose them. Peter describes the current situation as an autocracy, with Putin at the top.
Peter believes that Ukraine has a very special place in the Russian psyche because it is regarded as the centre of Russian orthodoxy. There are many great monasteries and churches, and for complicated historical reasons, those centres actually happen to be located in Ukraine.
“In Russia itself, there would be a lot of support for an occupation of Ukraine,” says Peter. “After Ukraine was given its independence, they became independent of the Russian Orthodox Church, and there was a very negative reaction to that.”
But it’s also true that if Putin were to invade Ukraine, he would be breaching an agreement signed by Russia in 1994. This is known as the Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine. But most experts don’t think Putin will let himself be constrained by the treaty.
“If Putin does invade Ukraine, it will destabilise the whole of Central Europe,” says Peter. “Because since the fall of Soviet communism, there has been an agreement as to where Central European borders should be. It would also be signalling to the West that the Russian state will ignore the treaties they have signed in order to reassert control over Ukraine.”
Closer to home, an invasion would almost certainly be interpreted by China as further evidence of a weakness of the West. The Chinese have been emboldened to push harder into the South China Sea to threaten to invade Taiwan. Russia and China would see a successful occupation of Ukraine as being further evidence that the West is weak.
Peter fears that without troops on the ground, Putin will almost certainly invade. “Of course, stationing American troops would be seen as an escalation. But unless we do that, there is not enough reason to dissuade Russia.”
“If it happens, it would have very negative consequences for the west, in particular the US and the European Union,” Peter says.
“But also directly for Australia, because it would embolden China to be even more aggressive in this part of the world.”