The latest poll has Jacinda Ardern’s government on track to win a slight majority and a second term in New Zealand, without coalition partners NZ First.
The headline figures from the Newshub-Reid Research poll have opposition National on 43.3 per cent, Labour on 42.5 per cent and the Green party on 5.6 per cent.
NZ First, the party of deputy prime minister Winston Peters, receives just 3.6 per cent of the preferences of those polled – below the five per cent threshold needed to return to parliament.
Translated into parliamentary seats under New Zealand’s complex mixed member proportional system, Labour and the Greens would claim 62 seats of the 120-member parliament; enough to govern with a wafer-thin majority.
Quite apart from Australian politics where the left-leaning parties have an acrimonious relationship, in New Zealand Labour and the Greens govern together in relative harmony.
The election will be held on September 19.
Ardern’s right coalition partner, NZ First, received their worst poll numbers in several months, but Peters’ party isn’t without hope.
NZ First will stand favourite son Shane Jones in Northland with the aim of winning an electorate seat that would guarantee the party a strong presence in parliament.
Ardern also maintains a huge lead as preferred prime minister in the poll, heading opposition leader Simon Bridges by 39 per cent to 11.
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